Two things I find interesting:
1) I'm glad there are incentives. I'm sure players and teams could look at this and laugh it off but the fact that group stage points carry over to the regular season is an important feature. Sure, the CCL spot and prize money are nice but for teams that know they won't go all the way (or any team really), this is great motivation.
2) The idea of a regular season after the tournament intrigues me. Will it have the same amount of matches as the normal regular seasons? When will it end? Will they still have the standard MLS Cup playoffs? These are all important questions that MLS must answer quickly; the tournament will only last so long and once it's over players (and fans) will be wondering about the next steps. Unfortunately, the pandemic has made it impossible to predict the future beyond next week so these questions cannot be answered easily.
Additionally, MLS is hoping the regular season can resume in all home markets and not just in Orlando. I don't think this is entirely possible, especially considering how all the states are reopening at different rates with different results. To get all of them to be ready simultaneously for the MLS regular season will be...tough. It's too early to tell but it'll be interesting to keep an eye on.
I'm going to take a look at the groups and give my predictions and thoughts.
Group A: Orlando City
Inter Miami
NYCFC
Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
The only six-team group in the whole competition is an interesting one with a diverse set of teams. What's interesting is that none of these teams won either of the two games they played before the season was suspended. Nonetheless, NYCFC and the Union both stand out. They are by far the best teams in this group and I wouldn't be surprised if they finished first and second, respectively. I know NYCFC lost their first two games but they still have one of the deepest, most talented teams in the league.
Beyond that there really is no clear-cut favorite. While Orlando City are the hosts, they are not the greatest team and their time in MLS has been full of disappointment. They scored just once over their first two games under new head coach Oscar Pareja and will be hoping to impress in their home. The Chicago Fire are in a similar boat in that after a fantastic 2017 season, they have not fared well.
MLS' newest teams round out the group: Nashville SC and Inter Miami. It's hard to judge these teams with the small sample size but both are still looking for their first win. Nashville seem to have a defensively competent team but their offense lacks bite (there only goal came from their CB Walker Zimmerman). Inter Miami played a competitive game in their debut loss against the best team in MLS while collapsing after their CB picked up a red card in their second game. Like I said, it's not much.
Spots 3-6 will come down to schedule strength and returning to form after a prolonged break. Since this is this only six-team group, not every team will play each other (the link towards the top has it available). Based on that and other factors, here's how I think it will pan out:
NYCFC
Philly
Orlando
Miami
Chicago
Nashville
Group B: Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
This Western Conference group is similar to the last one in that two teams stick out for me: FC Dallas and the Sounders. Both teams have won and draw a game so far and boast impressive teams with FC Dallas boasting a youthful team full of academy products and the Sounders boasting the title of "2019 MLS Cup Champions." Unlike the first group, however, the gap between these two teams and the other teams isn't as big.
The Earthquakes have a solid team that finished just outside the playoff bubble last year and, with more experience with Matias Almeyda's man-marking system, I think they could play better this year. As for the Whitecaps, they will be relying on Lucas Cavallini, their record signing, to score lots of goals and Maxime Crepeau, their breakout goalkeeper. What if Cavallini doesn't live up to the hype? What if Crepeau can't save his porous defense? It's hard to rely on two players because if one (or both) of them doesn't perform then the rest of the team is screwed.
Seattle
FC Dallas
San Jose
Vancouver
Group C: Toronto FC
DC United
DC United
Montréal Impact
New England Revolution
Honestly, I think this is a pretty close group. While Toronto FC are definitely the front-runners, everything after that is unknown. DC United and the Revolution finished close to each other last season (only five points apart), which each team having strong players. For DC it's Julian Gressel, Bill Hamid and Ola Kamara. For the Revolution, it's Gustavo Bou, Matt Turner and newcomer Adam Buksa.
Montréal's allure is their new manager, Thierry Henry. While his previous managing stint at Monaco didn't go well, he won and drew his first two games in MLS. If he can get Maxi Urruti, Bojan and Victor Wanyama to play well, then they have a good chance of advancing to the next round. Also, despite the tournament being in Orlando, their Canadian Classique with Toronto should be a ton of fun.
Toronto FC
DC United
New England
Montréal
Group D: Colorado Rapids
Real Salt Lake
Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United
I think this group is actually pretty well-rounded. All four teams are fairly close and even the outlier (looking at you, RSL) isn't completely out of the race; in a tournament like this, anything can happen. SKC should win this group though, especially if their newest signing Alan Pulido can make the adjustment and score lots of goals. They are talented and deep around him. Minnesota United are pretty close with guys like Ozzie Alonso, Ike Opara and Jan Gregus (they made the playoffs last year), but I don't think they'll be able to catch SKC for first place.
The Rapids are my favorite Western Conference team. I love their players, their style and I think they are always a dark horse; they may not have the biggest names or the flashiest players, but they can still play some solid soccer and score goals. I'm starting to sound a little biased here, but at least I'm not putting them in first. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if they got second place.
SKC
Minnesota
Colorado
RSL
Group E: New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
If you thought Group D had an obvious outlier, just take a look at this group. FCC are out of their league here and even though they will have the Hell is Real Derby with Columbus, I think it will be a tough and disappointing time for them. The other Ohioan team is quite attractive though. They have depth and talent in every position (Gyasi Zardes, Eloy Room, Darlington Nagbe, etc.) and have greatly improved since last year.
While they do sound like favorites, they are in the same group as Atlanta Untied. If you think back to before the pandemic, their star striker Josef Martinez tore his ACL in the first game of the season and he won't be coming back anytime soon. Despite this loss, Atlanta are still stacked and have the winning experience. This leaves NYRB who are in a sort of rebuild now. Bradley Wright-Phillips and Luis Robles have left, handing the reins to Brian White, Alex Muyl, and Aaron Long, amongst other talented youngsters.
Atlanta
Columbus
NYRB
FCC
Group F: Houston Dynamo
LA Galaxy
Portland Timbers
LAFC
To me, the last group is fairly balanced for the most part. Sure, LAFC stand as favorites since they are the best team in MLS but the rest of the group isn't too bad either. I think the Timbers are next up, since they always manage to surprise us (2018 MLS Cup Final). They are returning with a lot of the same players, Steve Clark is hoping to continue his success and newcomer Jaroslaw Niezgoda will be looking to prove his DP slot.
In my eyes, the Dynamo and the Galaxy are sort-of on the same page; they both have deep, talented offenses but glaring defenses. Even though Zlatan is no longer here, the Galaxy still have Cristian Pavón, Sebastian Lletget and Chicharito while the Dynamo have Alberth Elis, Mauro Manotas, Christian Ramirez. I honestly think it's a coin flip between the two.
LAFC
Portland
Galaxy
Houston
Hopefully this gave you some insight into the upcoming tournament. Thanks for going through this breakdown with me and taking a look at this new competition format. I'm really excited to see the league start up again and can't wait to watch some good, entertaining soccer.
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